Minicamp Confidence Intervals
I predict, with 50% confidence, that this comment will have between +1 and +4 karma at 9 pm PST on 6/2/2011.
I predict, with 50% confidence, that this comment will have between +1 and +4 karma at 9 pm PST on 6/2/2011.
Less Wrong hates it when you do things like this, definitely not.
I think that your prediction affected the outcome. :D
He probably thought he had predicted how his prediction will affect the outcome. :D
Better would be to predict that the comment will have, say, between −10 and 0 karma. Would the audience who dislike this type of comments downvote to hurt the author’s karma, or upvote to frustrate his prediction?
(I am not going to do the experiment myself—the first time it is slightly amusing, the second time it would be annoying. But if somebody doesn’t mind being annoying...)
I would downvote for annoyingness.
We’re really good at this sort of group coordination: −20 karma for sure :)
So modify: predict that the karma will be negative with 90% confidence.