To a first approximation, I agree with the original essay. To nitpick, though:
If someone has thought through his model in enough detail that he has a reasonable-sounding plan to empirically test it, that’s bayesian evidence that it’s a strong one.
If someone’s model has no in-principle testable consequences, that’s bayesian evidence that there’s little point in wasting brainpower considering it; scoffing at it and forgetting it is a safe default action. Of course, since the ketchup hypothesis does have such consequences, I can think of uses for it, if it is true.
If someone has thought through his model in enough detail that he has a reasonable-sounding plan to empirically test it, that’s bayesian evidence that it’s a strong one.
Upvoted this ^^^
If someone’s model has no in-principle testable consequences, that’s bayesian evidence that there’s little point in wasting brainpower considering it; scoffing at it and forgetting it is a safe default action. Of course, since the ketchup hypothesis does have such consequences, I can think of uses for it, if it is true.
What about the case where the model is not testable, but possibly actionable in your lifetime, e.g. asteroid strike in 1K years prevented by an slight orbit deviation produced by a nuke. I’m guessing this is covered by the in-principle clause.
To a first approximation, I agree with the original essay. To nitpick, though:
If someone has thought through his model in enough detail that he has a reasonable-sounding plan to empirically test it, that’s bayesian evidence that it’s a strong one.
If someone’s model has no in-principle testable consequences, that’s bayesian evidence that there’s little point in wasting brainpower considering it; scoffing at it and forgetting it is a safe default action. Of course, since the ketchup hypothesis does have such consequences, I can think of uses for it, if it is true.
Upvoted this ^^^
What about the case where the model is not testable, but possibly actionable in your lifetime, e.g. asteroid strike in 1K years prevented by an slight orbit deviation produced by a nuke. I’m guessing this is covered by the in-principle clause.