Luke and I brainstormed a list of potential historical examples of people predicting the future 10+ years out, and using the predictions to inform their actions. We came up with the following potential examples, which I’ve listed in chronological order by approximate year:
Many of these are known because of their prescience or impact. So the ratio of success to failure in the set is almost meaningless, although systematic differences between the failures and successes could be interesting.
ETA: I don’t mean to imply that you were going to count them as though they were independent of outcome, just to raise the fact that we can’t.
Many of these are known because of their prescience or impact. So the ratio of success to failure in the set is almost meaningless, although systematic differences between the failures and successes could be interesting.
ETA: I don’t mean to imply that you were going to count them as though they were independent of outcome, just to raise the fact that we can’t.
Meaningless seems too strong – you seem to be assuming a very strong selection effect – what selection effect are you assuming?
In any case, we’re not simply counting successes and failures.
We’re looking at this.