This will be an accepted on payment kind of deal? I need probably another few days to mull it over. I’ve never committed to a bet where I could potentially have to spend $50,000 in the future. I would feel really dumb if I jumped into it
Clarification, if we agree that the likelihood of non-prosaic UFOs is >50% 4 years into the future but then at the time horizon the likelihood is back down way <50% do I pay or no? This is really unlikely, but what came to top of mind. Also, if I do have to pay in that scenario, how immediate do you want the payment?
Curious what your thoughts are now? Still mulling it over? I would like to make this bet, so please let me know if there are any further concerns you have.
I think your offer to bet did me some good. I don’t think my belief in non-prosaic UFOs is actually much lower than .5%. Either that or seeing you accept worse deals makes me want to negotiate.
If we lower my exposure to $20,000 and the odds to 1:100 I’ll accept the bet with all conditions previously stated in our comment chain and the post. I will also PM you my personal info if you accept.
My btc address: bc1q32lqjmncj07wm2nyppzzuctv4y8q53h4khn8n8
Respectfully, that sounds like the “catch” here, though I doubt you have any actual ill intentions. If it applies at any point within the period, then it could apply for something as simple as a brief miscommunication from the White House that gets resolved within 24 hours. Some overworked and underpaid headline-writer makes a critical typo, aliens suddenly seem confirmed to LWers, and then… it’s game?
I would strongly recommend that you amend that edge case interpretation to only consider the state of things at the end of the period. While there could still technically be a spike of credulity around that time, it would be quite unlikely, whereas if UFOs have actually properly been established at some point in that time period, they will remain so throughout.
A proper Bayesian currently at less 0.5% credence for a proposition P should assign a less than 1 in 100 chance that their credence in P rises above 50% at any point in the future. This isn’t a catch for someone who’s well-calibrated.
In the example you give, the extent to which it seems likely that critical typos would happen and trigger this mechanism by accident is exactly the extent to which an observer of a strange headline should discount their trust in it! Evidence for unlikely events cannot be both strong and probable-to-appear, or the events would not be unlikely.
If the purpose of this betting is to reward those who bet on the truth, though, then allowing a spike in credulity to count for it works against that purpose, and turns it into more of a combined bet of “Odds that the true evidence available to the public and LW suggests >50% likelihood or that substantial false evidence comes out for a very short period within the longer time period”.
In his comment reply to me, OP mentioned he would be fine with a window of a month for things to settle and considered it a reasonable concern, which suggests that he is (rightly) focused more on betting about actual UFO likelihood, rather than the hybrid likelihood that includes hypothetical instances of massive short-term misinformation.
While you are correct that the probability of that misinformation should theoretically be factored in on the better’s end, that’s not what the OP is really wanting to bet on in the first place; as such, I don’t think it was a mistake to point it out.
That’s a reasonable concern. My concern is that without some principal to avoid it, that would just mean that everyone waits out the full 5 years even if its clear I’m the winner.
I wouldn’t mind giving a window of a month for things to settle before there’s a duty to settle. I would still demand that if anyones credence ever goes >50% that they still have to register that publicly (or at least to me)
This will be an accepted on payment kind of deal? I need probably another few days to mull it over. I’ve never committed to a bet where I could potentially have to spend $50,000 in the future. I would feel really dumb if I jumped into it
Clarification, if we agree that the likelihood of non-prosaic UFOs is >50% 4 years into the future but then at the time horizon the likelihood is back down way <50% do I pay or no? This is really unlikely, but what came to top of mind. Also, if I do have to pay in that scenario, how immediate do you want the payment?
Curious what your thoughts are now? Still mulling it over? I would like to make this bet, so please let me know if there are any further concerns you have.
I think your offer to bet did me some good. I don’t think my belief in non-prosaic UFOs is actually much lower than .5%. Either that or seeing you accept worse deals makes me want to negotiate.
If we lower my exposure to $20,000 and the odds to 1:100 I’ll accept the bet with all conditions previously stated in our comment chain and the post. I will also PM you my personal info if you accept.
My btc address: bc1q32lqjmncj07wm2nyppzzuctv4y8q53h4khn8n8
Sounds good to me! I will send $200 worth of bitcoin to this address sometime today
BTC transaction cleared today for 665,668 satoshis, equivalent of $200 usd. Bet is agreed to as above.
Correct, accepted at payment time. If you need more time to think it over, no problem.
Interesting edge case. I would ask that if you at any point became >50% within the time horizon, that you would proactively reach out in short order.
Respectfully, that sounds like the “catch” here, though I doubt you have any actual ill intentions. If it applies at any point within the period, then it could apply for something as simple as a brief miscommunication from the White House that gets resolved within 24 hours. Some overworked and underpaid headline-writer makes a critical typo, aliens suddenly seem confirmed to LWers, and then… it’s game?
I would strongly recommend that you amend that edge case interpretation to only consider the state of things at the end of the period. While there could still technically be a spike of credulity around that time, it would be quite unlikely, whereas if UFOs have actually properly been established at some point in that time period, they will remain so throughout.
A proper Bayesian currently at less 0.5% credence for a proposition P should assign a less than 1 in 100 chance that their credence in P rises above 50% at any point in the future. This isn’t a catch for someone who’s well-calibrated.
In the example you give, the extent to which it seems likely that critical typos would happen and trigger this mechanism by accident is exactly the extent to which an observer of a strange headline should discount their trust in it! Evidence for unlikely events cannot be both strong and probable-to-appear, or the events would not be unlikely.
If the purpose of this betting is to reward those who bet on the truth, though, then allowing a spike in credulity to count for it works against that purpose, and turns it into more of a combined bet of “Odds that the true evidence available to the public and LW suggests >50% likelihood or that substantial false evidence comes out for a very short period within the longer time period”.
In his comment reply to me, OP mentioned he would be fine with a window of a month for things to settle and considered it a reasonable concern, which suggests that he is (rightly) focused more on betting about actual UFO likelihood, rather than the hybrid likelihood that includes hypothetical instances of massive short-term misinformation.
While you are correct that the probability of that misinformation should theoretically be factored in on the better’s end, that’s not what the OP is really wanting to bet on in the first place; as such, I don’t think it was a mistake to point it out.
That’s a reasonable concern. My concern is that without some principal to avoid it, that would just mean that everyone waits out the full 5 years even if its clear I’m the winner.
I wouldn’t mind giving a window of a month for things to settle before there’s a duty to settle. I would still demand that if anyones credence ever goes >50% that they still have to register that publicly (or at least to me)
That sounds reasonable enough.