Regarding if there is evidence convincing to you, but not to me, after the five years:
If the LW community overwhelmingly agrees (say >85%) that my refusal to accept the evidence available as of 5 years from the time of the bet as overcoming the prior against ontologically surprising things being responsible for some “UAPs” was unreasonable, then I would agree to pay. I wouldn’t accept 50% of LessWrong having that view as enough, and don’t trust the judgement of particular individuals even if I trust them to be intelligent and honest.
Evidence that arises or becomes publicly available after the 5 years doesn’t count, even if the bet was still under dispute at the time of the new evidence.
I will also operate in good faith, but don’t promise not to be a stickler to the terms (see for example Bryan Caplan on his successful bet that no member nation of the EU with a population over 10 million would leave before 2020 (which he won despite the UK voting to leave in 2016) (Bet 10 at https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0)
If you agree to these, in addition to what was discussed above, then I would be willing to offer $100k USD max bet for $2k USD now.
This is to publicly confirm that I have received approximately $2000 USD equivalent.
Unless you dispute what timing is appropriate for the knowledge cutoff, I will consider the knowledge cutoff for the paradigm-shattering UAP-related revelations for me to send you $100k USD to be 11:59pm, June 14, 2028 UTC time.
Regarding if there is evidence convincing to you, but not to me, after the five years:
If the LW community overwhelmingly agrees (say >85%) that my refusal to accept the evidence available as of 5 years from the time of the bet as overcoming the prior against ontologically surprising things being responsible for some “UAPs” was unreasonable, then I would agree to pay. I wouldn’t accept 50% of LessWrong having that view as enough, and don’t trust the judgement of particular individuals even if I trust them to be intelligent and honest.
Evidence that arises or becomes publicly available after the 5 years doesn’t count, even if the bet was still under dispute at the time of the new evidence.
I will also operate in good faith, but don’t promise not to be a stickler to the terms (see for example Bryan Caplan on his successful bet that no member nation of the EU with a population over 10 million would leave before 2020 (which he won despite the UK voting to leave in 2016) (Bet 10 at https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0)
If you agree to these, in addition to what was discussed above, then I would be willing to offer $100k USD max bet for $2k USD now.
This is more than acceptable for me. Please reach out for a way for me to pay you.
This is to publicly confirm that I have received approximately $2000 USD equivalent.
Unless you dispute what timing is appropriate for the knowledge cutoff, I will consider the knowledge cutoff for the paradigm-shattering UAP-related revelations for me to send you $100k USD to be 11:59pm, June 14, 2028 UTC time.
Glad we could make this bet!