When it comes to solution criteria, it might be useful to have a Metaculus question. Metaculus questions have a good track record of being resolved in a fair matter.
If this were to result in a Yes, I would be more inclined to believe that factors like media control or a significant number of people in positions of power going mad, possibly due to mind-hack content, are more likely than aliens hanging around Earth instead of being grabby. A probability of ~1% for this scenario seems reasonable to me.
I’m wondering if there are more reliable ways to verify claims about aliens or supernatural phenomena. It seems like OP is trying to solve this problem by requiring an ontological shift in the community, which can still be manipulated either intentionally or unintentionally. However, there is probably less motivation for such manipulation compared to mainstream media.
Linked question: “Will mainstream news media report that alien technology has visited our solar system before 2030?”
I would say that is far from unambiguous. If one is generous in one’s interpretation of “mainstream” and the certainty described one could say mainstream news has already reported this (I remember National Inquirer articles from the seventies...).
Don’t confuse the headline with the resolution criteria.
The resolution criteria is:
This question will resolve as Yes if, between June 1, 2021 to January 1, 2030, 4 credible media sources report that non-human extra-terrestrial technology has been discovered in the solar system (within Neptune’s orbit). This may pertain to current claims of UFOs/UAP, events between June 1, 2021 and January 1, 2030, or discoveries of archaelogical evidence (defunct or non-operational technology, found on earth or in the solar system).
The fine print is:
for this question, credible media sources will include:
The Associated Press The New York Times The Wall Street Journal The Washington Post The Los Angeles Times Time Magazine The Economist The Times of London The Financial Times Le Monde or Die Zeit
Additionally, A report from a branch of the federal government that claims that aliens are the most likely explanation of a reported observation will count as a source
Metaculus questions have a good track record of being resolved in a fair matter.
Do they? My experience has been the opposite. E.g. admins resolved “[Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard?” in an absurd manner* and refused to correct it when I followed up on it.
*they resolved it to something other than the amount awarded to Depp despite thatamount being the answer to the question and the correct resolution according to the resolution criteria
The resolution criteria does have the sentence “In the event that this trial results in a monetary award for Amber Heard, including legal fees or other penalties imposed by a court, this question will resolve in the negative to the dollar amount awarded Amber Heard.”
It seems that after the judge’s decision, there’s 10,350,000 for Depp and 2,000,000 for Amber. To me, that sentence reads like i’s reasonable to do 10,350,000 − 2,000,000 = 8,350,000
I think the situation is simple enough we can talk directly about how it is, rather than how it might seem.
The question itself does not imply any kind of net award, and the resolution criteria do not mention any kind of net reward. Further, the resolution criteria are worded in such a way that implies the question should not be resolved to a net award. So, if you are to make an argument in favour of a net award it would make sense to address why you are going against the resolution criteria and in doing so resolving to something other than the answer to the question asked.
Here are the resolution criteria, edited for improved readability:
This question will resolve to the total dollar amount awarded to Depp as a result of the ongoing jury trial.
In the event that no money is awarded or the jury does not find Heard responsible or the trial ends without a verdict this question will resolve to $0 USD.
In the event that this trial results in a monetary award for Amber Heard, including legal fees or other penalties imposed by a court, this question will resolve in the negative to the dollar amount awarded
Clause 3, which you quoted, is intended to come into effect only if clause 1 has not already come into effect (this is clear not just because it is the structure of the criteria, but also because otherwise we would reach a contradiction of resolving to both X and not-X). So, clause 3 is not meant to be and cannot be applied to the situation at hand.
Clause 3, even if it did apply to the situation at hand, makes no mention of a net award.
Clause 1, on the other hand, can be applied—following clause 1, the question would be resolved to the total dollar amount awarded to Depp (total, not less any anount), which would be appropriate because it precisley answers the actual question asked: “How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard?”.
Now, you might nonetheless think that it is more reasonable to resolve to a net amount, despite that not being an answer to the question asked, and it being a resolution not supported by the resolution criteria, but if so it would be logical to make an argument for it not based on the resolution criteria, which do not support it. And it would make sense to address the fact that you are going against the resolution criteria and in doing so unneccesarily resolving to something other than the answer to the question asked.
Clause 3, which you quoted, is intended to come into effect only if clause 1 has not already come into effect
That’s written nowhere in the resolution criteria and something you made up yourself.
As written both #1 and #3 apply. I think reading the phrase “resolve in the negative to the dollar” as being about subtraction is a reasonable reading.
which would be appropriate because it precisley answers the actual question asked:
I don’t think a headline should be seen as “the actual question”. I think it makes more sense to see the resolution criteria as the actual question.
You seem to have different intuitions of how the question should be resolved then the Metaculus team or I myself have. It’s generally shouldn’t be surprising that different people have different intuitions.
“This question will resolve in the negative to the dollar amount awarded”
This is a clear, unambiguous statement.
If we can’t agree even on that, we have little hope of reaching any kind of satisfying conclusion here.
Further, if you’re going to accuse me of making things up (I think this is, in this case, a violation of the sensible frontpage commenting guideline “If you disagree, try getting curious about what your partner is thinking”) then I doubt it’s worth it to continue this conversation.
When it comes to solution criteria, it might be useful to have a Metaculus question. Metaculus questions have a good track record of being resolved in a fair matter.
This is the most similar question that I could find that already exists.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7384/alien-tech-in-solar-system-before-2030/
If this were to result in a Yes, I would be more inclined to believe that factors like media control or a significant number of people in positions of power going mad, possibly due to mind-hack content, are more likely than aliens hanging around Earth instead of being grabby. A probability of ~1% for this scenario seems reasonable to me.
I’m wondering if there are more reliable ways to verify claims about aliens or supernatural phenomena. It seems like OP is trying to solve this problem by requiring an ontological shift in the community, which can still be manipulated either intentionally or unintentionally. However, there is probably less motivation for such manipulation compared to mainstream media.
Linked question: “Will mainstream news media report that alien technology has visited our solar system before 2030?”
I would say that is far from unambiguous. If one is generous in one’s interpretation of “mainstream” and the certainty described one could say mainstream news has already reported this (I remember National Inquirer articles from the seventies...).
Don’t confuse the headline with the resolution criteria.
The resolution criteria is:
The fine print is:
Do they? My experience has been the opposite. E.g. admins resolved “[Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard?” in an absurd manner* and refused to correct it when I followed up on it.
*they resolved it to something other than the amount awarded to Depp despite thatamount being the answer to the question and the correct resolution according to the resolution criteria
The resolution criteria does have the sentence “In the event that this trial results in a monetary award for Amber Heard, including legal fees or other penalties imposed by a court, this question will resolve in the negative to the dollar amount awarded Amber Heard.”
It seems that after the judge’s decision, there’s 10,350,000 for Depp and 2,000,000 for Amber. To me, that sentence reads like i’s reasonable to do 10,350,000 − 2,000,000 = 8,350,000
I think the situation is simple enough we can talk directly about how it is, rather than how it might seem.
The question itself does not imply any kind of net award, and the resolution criteria do not mention any kind of net reward. Further, the resolution criteria are worded in such a way that implies the question should not be resolved to a net award. So, if you are to make an argument in favour of a net award it would make sense to address why you are going against the resolution criteria and in doing so resolving to something other than the answer to the question asked.
Here are the resolution criteria, edited for improved readability:
This question will resolve to the total dollar amount awarded to Depp as a result of the ongoing jury trial.
In the event that no money is awarded or the jury does not find Heard responsible or the trial ends without a verdict this question will resolve to $0 USD.
In the event that this trial results in a monetary award for Amber Heard, including legal fees or other penalties imposed by a court, this question will resolve in the negative to the dollar amount awarded
Clause 3, which you quoted, is intended to come into effect only if clause 1 has not already come into effect (this is clear not just because it is the structure of the criteria, but also because otherwise we would reach a contradiction of resolving to both X and not-X). So, clause 3 is not meant to be and cannot be applied to the situation at hand.
Clause 3, even if it did apply to the situation at hand, makes no mention of a net award.
Clause 1, on the other hand, can be applied—following clause 1, the question would be resolved to the total dollar amount awarded to Depp (total, not less any anount), which would be appropriate because it precisley answers the actual question asked: “How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard?”.
Now, you might nonetheless think that it is more reasonable to resolve to a net amount, despite that not being an answer to the question asked, and it being a resolution not supported by the resolution criteria, but if so it would be logical to make an argument for it not based on the resolution criteria, which do not support it. And it would make sense to address the fact that you are going against the resolution criteria and in doing so unneccesarily resolving to something other than the answer to the question asked.
That’s written nowhere in the resolution criteria and something you made up yourself.
As written both #1 and #3 apply. I think reading the phrase “resolve in the negative to the dollar” as being about subtraction is a reasonable reading.
I don’t think a headline should be seen as “the actual question”. I think it makes more sense to see the resolution criteria as the actual question.
You seem to have different intuitions of how the question should be resolved then the Metaculus team or I myself have. It’s generally shouldn’t be surprising that different people have different intuitions.
“This question will resolve in the negative to the dollar amount awarded”
This is a clear, unambiguous statement.
If we can’t agree even on that, we have little hope of reaching any kind of satisfying conclusion here.
Further, if you’re going to accuse me of making things up (I think this is, in this case, a violation of the sensible frontpage commenting guideline “If you disagree, try getting curious about what your partner is thinking”) then I doubt it’s worth it to continue this conversation.