I fully agree with you and think you will win big here
Does that mean you’re willing to undercut RWAU and offer bets at substantially better-for-the-other-party odds?
RWAU says they think we’re overconfident, but without looking through the whole thread I don’t think they’ve said what their own confidence is. (Which makes sense, telling us that would be an information asymmetry that we could exploit.) They’ve accepted odds as low as 50:1, with counterparty and inflation risks, so we can infer that their confidence is presumably significantly higher than 2%. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s less than 50%.
But from the sounds of things your confidence is higher than 50%? So… can I interest you in a 1:1 bet (if we can avoid the counterparty and inflation risks)? :D
(Fwiw I think that “why would I take a 1:1 bet when it seems I can get much better odds than that” is totally a valid answer here.)
Does that mean you’re willing to undercut RWAU and offer bets at substantially better-for-the-other-party odds?
RWAU says they think we’re overconfident, but without looking through the whole thread I don’t think they’ve said what their own confidence is. (Which makes sense, telling us that would be an information asymmetry that we could exploit.) They’ve accepted odds as low as 50:1, with counterparty and inflation risks, so we can infer that their confidence is presumably significantly higher than 2%. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s less than 50%.
But from the sounds of things your confidence is higher than 50%? So… can I interest you in a 1:1 bet (if we can avoid the counterparty and inflation risks)? :D
(Fwiw I think that “why would I take a 1:1 bet when it seems I can get much better odds than that” is totally a valid answer here.)