I should be clearer yet. I’m wondering how you distinguish “the community in aggregate has gone (just somewhat) horribly wrong” from “I don’t think this particular mechanism works for everyone, certainly not me”.
If making actual wagers makes you uncomfortable, don’t do it. If analyzing many of your beliefs in a bet-like framing (probability distribution of future experiences, with enough concreteness to be resolvable at some future point) is uncomfortable, I’d recommend giving that part of it another go, as it’s pretty generally useful as a way to avoid fuzzy thinking (and fuzzy communication, which I consider a different thing).
In any case, thanks for the discussion—I always appreciate hearing from those with different beliefs and models of how to improve our individual and shared beliefs about the world.
I should be clearer yet. I’m wondering how you distinguish “the community in aggregate has gone (just somewhat) horribly wrong” from “I don’t think this particular mechanism works for everyone, certainly not me”.
If making actual wagers makes you uncomfortable, don’t do it. If analyzing many of your beliefs in a bet-like framing (probability distribution of future experiences, with enough concreteness to be resolvable at some future point) is uncomfortable, I’d recommend giving that part of it another go, as it’s pretty generally useful as a way to avoid fuzzy thinking (and fuzzy communication, which I consider a different thing).
In any case, thanks for the discussion—I always appreciate hearing from those with different beliefs and models of how to improve our individual and shared beliefs about the world.