(Please take this as constructive, as I very much want to see the global eradication of biting mosquitoes occur.)
I think this specific proposal (an online petition/Facebook activism) is naive and likely counter-productive. I feel like I should be docked several thousand Initiative Points for saying this, but please don’t do as you propose.
For starters, you cannot say “mosquitoes”—as others have pointed out, there are ~3500 separate mosquito species, only ~100 bite humans, and only several dozen transmit disease. Narrowness is a virtue here, and this level of biological imprecision could alienate potential allies who will take you as reckless and uninformed.
(A related point is that the most promising interventions for eradication (like the sterile insect technique) are species specific, so it makes sense to start with the highest-priority target. Because [complex chain of reasoning to fill in later], I think aedes albopictus is likely the best bet.)
Also, I don’t think country-level eradication plans (even for a single species) have the slightest chance of working long-term due to persistent re-invasion risk. A continent- or hemisphere-scale plan would be required, which comes with the commensurate coordination problems, and is much less likely to be aided by petition.
Additionally, don’t underestimate the potential for politicization of such a program. Raising it to the level of public awareness without a good communication plan is premature.
Finally, many folks have entirely reasonable concerns about downstream effects that really do deserve sober analysis. I think it’s likely that effects on other species or ecosystem stability will be negligible (or at least worth the cost), but that’s an empirical question that deserves serious attention. As someone else pointed out, this is probably the key objection to overcome, so you might want to invest some effort in alleviating it upfront.
(All that said, it’s awesome that you’re thinking about this seriously. The eradication proposal is sort of my favourite idea ever, so please PM me if you’d like to discuss it further offline.)
For starters, you cannot say “mosquitoes”—as others have pointed out, there are ~3500 separate mosquito species, only ~100 bite humans, and only several dozen transmit disease.
I don’t see any reason to only target those that transmit diseases. Target ones that are simply annoying because they string the average person, gives everyone a clear reason to support the proposal. There are also people with allergies or who simply don’t heal the stinged area very well.
Also, I don’t think country-level eradication plans (even for a single species) have the slightest chance of working long-term due to persistent re-invasion risk.
If you have to continue paying a few million each year to keep the mosquito population near zero that’s no problem for any industrialized country if there’s public will.
Narrowness is a virtue here, and this level of biological imprecision could alienate potential allies who will take you as reckless and uninformed.
Don’t worry as far as biological imprecision goes. I don’t invest the kind of effort required for being precise for a LW post to explore the idea but I would certainly invest the necessary effort if I wrote an actual petition and tried to make it viral.
I also made a choice against immediately crossposting to the effective altruism board or other venues to be able to iterate based on feedback.
(A related point is that the most promising interventions for eradication (like the sterile insect technique) are species specific, so it makes sense to start with the highest-priority target. Because [complex chain of reasoning to fill in later], I think aedes albopictus is likely the best bet.)
According to the map on Wikipedia we don’t have any aedes albopictus in Germany but 4 neighboring countries have them. That means that it’s not a valid target for German activism. Otherwise do you disagree with that map?
I don’t see any reason to only target those that transmit diseases. Target ones that are simply annoying because they string the average person, gives everyone a clear reason to support the proposal.
This is a good point—in fact, a distinction is usually drawn between “nuisance” and “disease vector” mosquito control (they can involve very different operations), and I’ve heard very knowledgeable people say that the only way to maintain public support for a control program is if there’s a strong nuisance component. You may be right on this, but note that I never contended otherwise (albopictus is both an efficient disease vector and a major nuisance).
If you have to continue paying a few million each year to keep the mosquito population near zero that’s no problem for any industrialized country if there’s public will.
Oh sure, but that’s not eradication! There are lots of mosquito population suppression programs around the world, many paid for with public funds (particularly in areas with lots of outdoor tourism and a strong local business influence in municipal politics). Programs like this work at even vastly sub-country spatial scales, but as you say you need to keep doing them year in year out. Part of the beauty of eradication is no longer needing ongoing investment.
Don’t worry as far as biological imprecision goes. [...] I would certainly invest the necessary effort [...]
Good!
According to the map on Wikipedia we don’t have any aedes albopictus in Germany but 4 neighboring countries have them. That means that it’s not a valid target for German activism. Otherwise do you disagree with that map?
Well, species distribution maps are notoriously tricky to get right, but suppose it’s right. The beauty of albopictus as a target is it’s a highly invasive species, happy to set up shop anywhere a little pot of water with some organic residue can be found (and perhaps an annual mean temperature >11C, though I’m not convinced by the data on this). I would imagine Germany is at risk of invasion, which is an awesome opportunity for activism - (almost) no one minds local eradication of an invasive species!
I don’t see any reason to only target those that transmit diseases. Target ones that are simply annoying because they string the average person, gives everyone a clear reason to support the proposal. There are also people with allergies or who simply don’t heal the stinged area very well.
In addition, if you target all human-biting mosquitoes, you get better information on whether the program is still effective, just ask people to report any mosquito bites.
One issue is the same intervention doesn’t necessarily affect both. For example, where I live West Nile virus is transmitted primarily by Culex pippiens mosquitoes, while the most abundant nuisance mosquito is Ochlerotatus stimulans.
Controlling one species will not greatly affect the other (they breed in radically different conditions). It’s not a matter of scaling up operations; you need an entirely different strategy, with commensurate increase in operating costs, complexity, potential failure points, etc etc.
Give me unlimited resources and global remit and I’ll take them all out, absent this prioritisation becomes necessary.
(Please take this as constructive, as I very much want to see the global eradication of biting mosquitoes occur.)
I think this specific proposal (an online petition/Facebook activism) is naive and likely counter-productive. I feel like I should be docked several thousand Initiative Points for saying this, but please don’t do as you propose.
For starters, you cannot say “mosquitoes”—as others have pointed out, there are ~3500 separate mosquito species, only ~100 bite humans, and only several dozen transmit disease. Narrowness is a virtue here, and this level of biological imprecision could alienate potential allies who will take you as reckless and uninformed.
(A related point is that the most promising interventions for eradication (like the sterile insect technique) are species specific, so it makes sense to start with the highest-priority target. Because [complex chain of reasoning to fill in later], I think aedes albopictus is likely the best bet.)
Also, I don’t think country-level eradication plans (even for a single species) have the slightest chance of working long-term due to persistent re-invasion risk. A continent- or hemisphere-scale plan would be required, which comes with the commensurate coordination problems, and is much less likely to be aided by petition.
Additionally, don’t underestimate the potential for politicization of such a program. Raising it to the level of public awareness without a good communication plan is premature.
Finally, many folks have entirely reasonable concerns about downstream effects that really do deserve sober analysis. I think it’s likely that effects on other species or ecosystem stability will be negligible (or at least worth the cost), but that’s an empirical question that deserves serious attention. As someone else pointed out, this is probably the key objection to overcome, so you might want to invest some effort in alleviating it upfront.
(All that said, it’s awesome that you’re thinking about this seriously. The eradication proposal is sort of my favourite idea ever, so please PM me if you’d like to discuss it further offline.)
I don’t see any reason to only target those that transmit diseases. Target ones that are simply annoying because they string the average person, gives everyone a clear reason to support the proposal. There are also people with allergies or who simply don’t heal the stinged area very well.
If you have to continue paying a few million each year to keep the mosquito population near zero that’s no problem for any industrialized country if there’s public will.
Don’t worry as far as biological imprecision goes. I don’t invest the kind of effort required for being precise for a LW post to explore the idea but I would certainly invest the necessary effort if I wrote an actual petition and tried to make it viral.
I also made a choice against immediately crossposting to the effective altruism board or other venues to be able to iterate based on feedback.
According to the map on Wikipedia we don’t have any aedes albopictus in Germany but 4 neighboring countries have them. That means that it’s not a valid target for German activism. Otherwise do you disagree with that map?
This is a good point—in fact, a distinction is usually drawn between “nuisance” and “disease vector” mosquito control (they can involve very different operations), and I’ve heard very knowledgeable people say that the only way to maintain public support for a control program is if there’s a strong nuisance component. You may be right on this, but note that I never contended otherwise (albopictus is both an efficient disease vector and a major nuisance).
Oh sure, but that’s not eradication! There are lots of mosquito population suppression programs around the world, many paid for with public funds (particularly in areas with lots of outdoor tourism and a strong local business influence in municipal politics). Programs like this work at even vastly sub-country spatial scales, but as you say you need to keep doing them year in year out. Part of the beauty of eradication is no longer needing ongoing investment.
Good!
Well, species distribution maps are notoriously tricky to get right, but suppose it’s right. The beauty of albopictus as a target is it’s a highly invasive species, happy to set up shop anywhere a little pot of water with some organic residue can be found (and perhaps an annual mean temperature >11C, though I’m not convinced by the data on this). I would imagine Germany is at risk of invasion, which is an awesome opportunity for activism - (almost) no one minds local eradication of an invasive species!
In addition, if you target all human-biting mosquitoes, you get better information on whether the program is still effective, just ask people to report any mosquito bites.
One issue is the same intervention doesn’t necessarily affect both. For example, where I live West Nile virus is transmitted primarily by Culex pippiens mosquitoes, while the most abundant nuisance mosquito is Ochlerotatus stimulans.
Controlling one species will not greatly affect the other (they breed in radically different conditions). It’s not a matter of scaling up operations; you need an entirely different strategy, with commensurate increase in operating costs, complexity, potential failure points, etc etc.
Give me unlimited resources and global remit and I’ll take them all out, absent this prioritisation becomes necessary.