I’m fairly certain that’s actually horrible advice. It boils down to “substitute your judgement over professionals on those problems that are hardest.”
I think this steelman is not quite true to the spirit of the original. The contrast he draws between “using a model” and “looking at data like a scientist” is especially strange. One wonders what he thinks of meteorology.
Well giving that meteorologists (or at least climate scientists) have for the last couple of decades been predicting warming and sea level rises that never seems to occur, I’d say it’s a good example.
I’m fairly certain that’s actually horrible advice. It boils down to “substitute your judgement over professionals on those problems that are hardest.”
More like “discount status on problems where expertise is a poor predictor of accuracy”.
I think this steelman is not quite true to the spirit of the original. The contrast he draws between “using a model” and “looking at data like a scientist” is especially strange. One wonders what he thinks of meteorology.
Well giving that meteorologists (or at least climate scientists) have for the last couple of decades been predicting warming and sea level rises that never seems to occur, I’d say it’s a good example.