What does “arguing for” mean? There’s expectation that a recipient changes their mind in some direction. This expectation goes away for a given argument, once it’s been considered, whether it had that effect or not. Repeating the argument won’t present an expectation of changing the mind of a person who already knows it, in either direction, so the argument is no longer an “argument for”. This is what I mean by anti-inductive.
Assuming you argue for X, but you don’t believe X
Suppose you don’t believe X, but someone doesn’t understand an aspect of X, such that you expect its understanding to increase their belief in X. Is this an “argument for” X? Should it be withheld, keeping the other’s understanding avoidably lacking?
What does “arguing for” mean? There’s expectation that a recipient changes their mind in some direction. This expectation goes away for a given argument, once it’s been considered, whether it had that effect or not.
Here is a proposal: A argues with Y for X iff A 1) claims that Y, and 2) that Y is evidence for X, in the sense that P(X|Y)>P(X|-Y). The latter can be considered true even if you already believe in Y.
Suppose you don’t believe X, but someone doesn’t understand an aspect of X, such that you expect its understanding to increase their belief in X. Is this an “argument for” X? Should it be withheld, keeping the other’s understanding avoidably lacking?
It seems that arguments provide evidence, and Y is evidence for X if and only if P(X|Y)>P(X|¬Y). That is, when X and Y are positively probabilistically dependent. If I think that they are positively dependent, and you think that they are not, then this won’t convince you of course.
What does “arguing for” mean? There’s expectation that a recipient changes their mind in some direction. This expectation goes away for a given argument, once it’s been considered, whether it had that effect or not. Repeating the argument won’t present an expectation of changing the mind of a person who already knows it, in either direction, so the argument is no longer an “argument for”. This is what I mean by anti-inductive.
Suppose you don’t believe X, but someone doesn’t understand an aspect of X, such that you expect its understanding to increase their belief in X. Is this an “argument for” X? Should it be withheld, keeping the other’s understanding avoidably lacking?
Here is a proposal: A argues with Y for X iff A 1) claims that Y, and 2) that Y is evidence for X, in the sense that P(X|Y)>P(X|-Y). The latter can be considered true even if you already believe in Y.
I agree, that’s a good argument.
The best arguments confer no evidence, they guide you in putting together the pieces you already hold.
Yeah, aka Socratic dialogue.
Alice: I don’t believe X.
Bob: Don’t you believe Y? And don’t you believe If Y then X?
Alice: Okay I guess I do believe X.
The point is, conditional probability doesn’t capture the effect of arguments.
It seems that arguments provide evidence, and Y is evidence for X if and only if P(X|Y)>P(X|¬Y). That is, when X and Y are positively probabilistically dependent. If I think that they are positively dependent, and you think that they are not, then this won’t convince you of course.