If the only observable outcome is the one in which we got that extremely lucky, then it doesn’t need explaining. You only can observe outcomes compatible with the fact of you making an observation.
Suppose, someone comes to you and shows you a red ball. Then they explain that they had two bags one with all red balls and one with balls of ten different colors. They have randomly picked the bag from which to pick the ball and then randomly picked the ball from this bag. Additionally they’ve precommited to come to you and show you the ball iff it happened to be red. What are the odds that the ball that is being shown to you have been picked from the all-red bag?
If the only observable outcome is the one in which we got that extremely lucky, then it doesn’t need explaining. You only can observe outcomes compatible with the fact of you making an observation.
Suppose, someone comes to you and shows you a red ball. Then they explain that they had two bags one with all red balls and one with balls of ten different colors. They have randomly picked the bag from which to pick the ball and then randomly picked the ball from this bag. Additionally they’ve precommited to come to you and show you the ball iff it happened to be red. What are the odds that the ball that is being shown to you have been picked from the all-red bag?