I agree with you. The correct reference class is only those who think about DA—and this imply the end is very soon, in a few decades.
But this again is not a surprising news, which could trigger our intuition. Several x-risks has high probability to happen in this timeframe. Complex societies with high population are unstable, and DA is just another way to say that.
imho the correct reference class is: non-genetically-modified humans. After this—“everyone becomes immortal but the birth rate declines”—happens to the class, it won’t matter who thought about DA earlier.
I agree with you. The correct reference class is only those who think about DA—and this imply the end is very soon, in a few decades.
But this again is not a surprising news, which could trigger our intuition. Several x-risks has high probability to happen in this timeframe. Complex societies with high population are unstable, and DA is just another way to say that.
imho the correct reference class is: non-genetically-modified humans. After this—“everyone becomes immortal but the birth rate declines”—happens to the class, it won’t matter who thought about DA earlier.