Sure, this makes perfect sense in a political environment—or in the ancestral environment, where I’m sure this kind of thing was very important to breeding (I could even take a shot at an evolutionary argument for this kind of instinct!). But that instinct is a net positive only in political situations; our current environment is significantly more factual-uncertainty based than political-uncertainty based. This may make the instinct a net negative.
Is that true? Surely even on a purely factual matter, it is still the case that he who makes a claim, will typically give his best evidence for the claim, so if the best evidence offered is weak, that still suggests stronger evidence doesn’t exist.
that he who makes a claim, will typically give his best evidence for the claim, so if the best evidence offered is weak,
If a person is making a claim to you and knowing whether this claim is right or wrong is important, things are already pretty political! I was thinking of a scientific study providing weak evidence in favour of something, and this heuristic hurting our estimates.
Sure, this makes perfect sense in a political environment—or in the ancestral environment, where I’m sure this kind of thing was very important to breeding (I could even take a shot at an evolutionary argument for this kind of instinct!). But that instinct is a net positive only in political situations; our current environment is significantly more factual-uncertainty based than political-uncertainty based. This may make the instinct a net negative.
Is that true? Surely even on a purely factual matter, it is still the case that he who makes a claim, will typically give his best evidence for the claim, so if the best evidence offered is weak, that still suggests stronger evidence doesn’t exist.
If a person is making a claim to you and knowing whether this claim is right or wrong is important, things are already pretty political! I was thinking of a scientific study providing weak evidence in favour of something, and this heuristic hurting our estimates.