There’s no good reason for assigning 50% probability to game A but neither is there a good reason to assign any other probability. I guess I can say that i’m using something like “fair Omega prior” that assumes that Omega is not trying to trick me.
You and Gurkenglas seem to assume that Omega would try to minimize your reward. What is the reason for that?
You and Gurkenglas seem to assume that Omega would try to minimize your reward
Base rate pessimism and TANSTAAFL. Offers of free money are almost always tricks, so my prior is that the next offer is also a trick. I expect not to be paid at all, so choosing the option that’s clearly a violation if I’m not paid is a much clearer cheat than choosing the one where Omega can claim to play by the rules and not pay me.
If you state that I don’t know a probability, I have to use other assumptions. 50⁄50 is a lazy assumption.
Note: this boils down to “where do you get your priors?”, which is unsolved in Bayesean rationality.
What can I say, your prior does make sense in the real world. Mine was based on the other problems featuring Omega (Newcomb’s problem and Counterfactual mugging) where apart from messing with your intuitions Omega was not playing any dirty tricks.
There’s no good reason for assigning 50% probability to game A but neither is there a good reason to assign any other probability. I guess I can say that i’m using something like “fair Omega prior” that assumes that Omega is not trying to trick me.
You and Gurkenglas seem to assume that Omega would try to minimize your reward. What is the reason for that?
Base rate pessimism and TANSTAAFL. Offers of free money are almost always tricks, so my prior is that the next offer is also a trick. I expect not to be paid at all, so choosing the option that’s clearly a violation if I’m not paid is a much clearer cheat than choosing the one where Omega can claim to play by the rules and not pay me.
If you state that I don’t know a probability, I have to use other assumptions. 50⁄50 is a lazy assumption.
Note: this boils down to “where do you get your priors?”, which is unsolved in Bayesean rationality.
What can I say, your prior does make sense in the real world. Mine was based on the other problems featuring Omega (Newcomb’s problem and Counterfactual mugging) where apart from messing with your intuitions Omega was not playing any dirty tricks.
I think this is a different guy named Omega. No mention of prediction or causality tricks, which are the hallmarks of Newcomb’s problem.