Not an American, but I have tried to understand what this might amount to… Let’s say, too simply, that what happens in American politics is a product of money, votes, and ideas. Of these three ingredients, “votes” seem to be least important to Balsa. Instead, you’re positioning yourselves as political hackers who will use money efficiently to get ideas turned into official policy—more efficiently than all those traditional think tanks and lobbyists, who are caught up in partisan negative-sum games, telling donors what they want to hear, and so on. Even more specifically, I get the sense of a “political MetaMed” whose initial target audience is effective-altruist nouveau-riche. You’ve indicated the kinds of reforms you’d like to facilitate, you’re spreading the word of your existence, now you wait to see if someone is willing to hire you to work on a proposal that you’re willing to support… Good luck, and we’ll see what adventures you have, on the way to Harris vs DeSantis, or whatever else happens in 2024.
Not an American, but I have tried to understand what this might amount to… Let’s say, too simply, that what happens in American politics is a product of money, votes, and ideas. Of these three ingredients, “votes” seem to be least important to Balsa. Instead, you’re positioning yourselves as political hackers who will use money efficiently to get ideas turned into official policy—more efficiently than all those traditional think tanks and lobbyists, who are caught up in partisan negative-sum games, telling donors what they want to hear, and so on. Even more specifically, I get the sense of a “political MetaMed” whose initial target audience is effective-altruist nouveau-riche. You’ve indicated the kinds of reforms you’d like to facilitate, you’re spreading the word of your existence, now you wait to see if someone is willing to hire you to work on a proposal that you’re willing to support… Good luck, and we’ll see what adventures you have, on the way to Harris vs DeSantis, or whatever else happens in 2024.
Checking predictit and Metaculus, Trump vs. Biden and DeSantis vs. Biden are the most likely pairs.