I mean, so much. First of all, the number is enormously more helpful than reading a bunch of articles that give me lots of detail that then force me to come up with my own model of the situation to come up with a probability.
And then the number itself of course drives all kinds of actions! Another COVID-level pandemic would be a huge deal that would change my actions drastically in hundreds of ways (this market is not about it being another COVID-level pandemic, but is a lower threshold).
I mean, so much. First of all, the number is enormously more helpful than reading a bunch of articles that give me lots of detail that then force me to come up with my own model of the situation to come up with a probability.
And then the number itself of course drives all kinds of actions! Another COVID-level pandemic would be a huge deal that would change my actions drastically in hundreds of ways (this market is not about it being another COVID-level pandemic, but is a lower threshold).