Okay, it sounds like our disagrement basically boils down to the value of the forecasts as well as the value of the scenario format (does that seem right?), which I don’t think is something we’ll come to agreement on.
Thanks again for writing this up! I hope you’re right about timelines being much longer and 2027 being insane (as I mentioned, it’s faster than my median has ever been, but I think it’s plausible enough to take seriously).
edit: I’d also be curious for you to specify what you mean by academic? The scenario itself seems like a very unusual format for academia. I think it would have seemed more serious academic-y if we had ditched the scenario format.
Perhaps we will find some agreement come Christmastime 2027. Until then, thanks for your time!
edit: Responding to your edit, by seeming academic, I meant things like seeming “detailed and evidence-based”, “involving citations and footnotes”, “involving robust statistics”, “resulting in high-confidence conclusions”, and stuff like that. Even the typography and multiple authors makes it seem Very Serious. I agree that the scenario part seemed less academic that the research pages.
Okay, it sounds like our disagrement basically boils down to the value of the forecasts as well as the value of the scenario format (does that seem right?), which I don’t think is something we’ll come to agreement on.
Thanks again for writing this up! I hope you’re right about timelines being much longer and 2027 being insane (as I mentioned, it’s faster than my median has ever been, but I think it’s plausible enough to take seriously).
edit: I’d also be curious for you to specify what you mean by academic? The scenario itself seems like a very unusual format for academia. I think it would have seemed more serious academic-y if we had ditched the scenario format.
Perhaps we will find some agreement come Christmastime 2027. Until then, thanks for your time!
edit: Responding to your edit, by seeming academic, I meant things like seeming “detailed and evidence-based”, “involving citations and footnotes”, “involving robust statistics”, “resulting in high-confidence conclusions”, and stuff like that. Even the typography and multiple authors makes it seem Very Serious. I agree that the scenario part seemed less academic that the research pages.