Thanks for the critique & the reply btw! Very much appreciate you giving quantitative alternative credences to mine, it’s a productive way to focus the conversation I think.
which doesn’t seem to have any banner at the top saying the authors no longer endorse the findings or anything. The domain name and favicon haven’t changed. I am now aware that you have adjusted your median timeline from 2027 to 2028, and that Eli has adjusted his estimate as well.
Footnote #1 used to be attached to “We wrote a scenario...” but we wanted it to be more prominent in response to exactly the sort of criticism you are making, so we moved it up to be literally a footnote on the title. I suppose we could have put it in the main text itself.
My median is currently 2029 actually; at the time AI 2027 was published it was 2028.
I have a strongish sense for 2027, but I would put SC, SAR, SAIR, and ASI all at least ten years further than that, and it’s really hard to know what the heck will be going on in the world by then, because unlike you I don’t believe this is a matter of continuous progress (for reasons mentioned in my post), and discontinuous progress is hard to predict. In 1902 Simon Newcomb said, “Flight by machines heavier than air is unpractical and insignificant, if not utterly impossible.” The next year the Wright brothers took off. I’m not sure trying to put a number on it is better than simply saying, “I don’t know.”
OK, thanks, that’s helpful. So yeah, while we agree that SC probably won’t happen by 2027 EOY, we do still have a disagreement—I think it probably WILL happen in the next five years or so (and the rest of the team thinks it’ll probably happen in the next ten years or so) whereas you seem confident it WON’T happen before 2037. I hope you are right! I agree also that the future is very hard to predict, especially the farther out it is (and 2037+ is very far out)
There’s a lot to say about why I think SC will probably happen in the next five years or so. I’ll go leave line-by-line comments in the relevant section of your post!
Yeah, someone pointed out that footnote to me, and I laughed a bit. It’s very small and easy to miss. I don’t think you guys actually misrepresented anything. It’s clear from reading the research section what your actual timelines are and so on. I’m just pointing to communication issues.
Thanks for the critique & the reply btw! Very much appreciate you giving quantitative alternative credences to mine, it’s a productive way to focus the conversation I think.
Footnote #1 used to be attached to “We wrote a scenario...” but we wanted it to be more prominent in response to exactly the sort of criticism you are making, so we moved it up to be literally a footnote on the title. I suppose we could have put it in the main text itself.
My median is currently 2029 actually; at the time AI 2027 was published it was 2028.
OK, thanks, that’s helpful. So yeah, while we agree that SC probably won’t happen by 2027 EOY, we do still have a disagreement—I think it probably WILL happen in the next five years or so (and the rest of the team thinks it’ll probably happen in the next ten years or so) whereas you seem confident it WON’T happen before 2037. I hope you are right! I agree also that the future is very hard to predict, especially the farther out it is (and 2037+ is very far out)
There’s a lot to say about why I think SC will probably happen in the next five years or so. I’ll go leave line-by-line comments in the relevant section of your post!
Yeah, someone pointed out that footnote to me, and I laughed a bit. It’s very small and easy to miss. I don’t think you guys actually misrepresented anything. It’s clear from reading the research section what your actual timelines are and so on. I’m just pointing to communication issues.
Thanks for your responses! I’ll check them out.