[16] I think this because I’ve looked at the probability distribution she gives on page 34 of part 3 of her report and 35 OOMs of floating point operations seems to be the median. I had to do this by measuring with a ruler and doing some eyeballing, so it’s probably not exactly correct, but I’d be surprised if the true answer is more than 55% or less than 45%. As a sanity check, Ajeya has 7 buckets in which her credence is distributed, with 30% in a bucket with median 34.5 OOMs, and 35% in buckets with higher medians, and 35% in buckets with lower medians. (But the lower buckets are closer to 35 than the higher buckets, meaning their tails will be higher than 35 more than the higher bucket’s tails will be lower than 35.
[16] I think this because I’ve looked at the probability distribution she gives on page 34 of part 3 of her report and 35 OOMs of floating point operations seems to be the median. I had to do this by measuring with a ruler and doing some eyeballing, so it’s probably not exactly correct, but I’d be surprised if the true answer is more than 55% or less than 45%. As a sanity check, Ajeya has 7 buckets in which her credence is distributed, with 30% in a bucket with median 34.5 OOMs, and 35% in buckets with higher medians, and 35% in buckets with lower medians. (But the lower buckets are closer to 35 than the higher buckets, meaning their tails will be higher than 35 more than the higher bucket’s tails will be lower than 35.