Well, it’s 12 OOMs more than our current FLOP usage. ;) Ajeya’s report is excellent and contains the best and most thorough answers to your questions I think. If I recall correctly, she projects that the price of compute will drop in half every 2.5 years on average, and that algorithmic/efficiency improvements will have a similar effect. And then there’s a one-time boost of up to +5 OOMs that we get from just spending a lot more. So she projects we get to (the equivalent of) +12 OOMs around 2050. Personally, I think the price of compute will drop a bit faster in the next ten years, and the algorithmic improvements will be a bit better too in the near term. But I’m very uncertain about that and mostly just defer to her judgment.
Well, it’s 12 OOMs more than our current FLOP usage. ;) Ajeya’s report is excellent and contains the best and most thorough answers to your questions I think. If I recall correctly, she projects that the price of compute will drop in half every 2.5 years on average, and that algorithmic/efficiency improvements will have a similar effect. And then there’s a one-time boost of up to +5 OOMs that we get from just spending a lot more. So she projects we get to (the equivalent of) +12 OOMs around 2050. Personally, I think the price of compute will drop a bit faster in the next ten years, and the algorithmic improvements will be a bit better too in the near term. But I’m very uncertain about that and mostly just defer to her judgment.
Awesome! Thanks for your answer!