Would you be willing to bet on this? I’d be willing to bet 2 of my dollars against 1 of yours, that no AGI will go FOOM in the remainder of the HPMoR story (for a maximum of 200 of my dollars vs 100 of yours)
At the moment I unfortunately don’t have enough cash to invest in betting projects.
Additionally I don’t know Eliezer personally and there are people on LessWrong that do and which might have access to nonpublic information. As a result it’s not a good topic for betting money.
At the moment I unfortunately don’t have enough cash to invest in betting projects.
Fortunately, that’s why we have PredictionBook! Looking through my compilation of predictions (http://www.gwern.net/hpmor-predictions), I see we already have two relevant predictions:
At the moment I unfortunately don’t have enough cash to invest in betting projects.
Additionally I don’t know Eliezer personally and there are people on LessWrong that do and which might have access to nonpublic information. As a result it’s not a good topic for betting money.
Fortunately, that’s why we have PredictionBook! Looking through my compilation of predictions (http://www.gwern.net/hpmor-predictions), I see we already have two relevant predictions:
Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects
and it won’t be Friendly, killing many/all
(I’ve added a new more general one as well.)
I added my prediction to that.