Thank you! This makes me wonder if one can predict whether CoT-based AGI will be reached at all. Setting aside any forecaster’s nightmares like a time horizon growing exponentially until the very last couple of doublings or a potentiallyinflated time horizon of Claude Opus 4.5, one might try to predict the influence of the 100x-400x increase in compute on the METR-like[1] time horizon. And how much do you expect “setting up better tasks and RL environments” to increase the logarithm of the time horizon?
Thank you! This makes me wonder if one can predict whether CoT-based AGI will be reached at all. Setting aside any forecaster’s nightmares like a time horizon growing exponentially until the very last couple of doublings or a potentially inflated time horizon of Claude Opus 4.5, one might try to predict the influence of the 100x-400x increase in compute on the METR-like[1] time horizon. And how much do you expect “setting up better tasks and RL environments” to increase the logarithm of the time horizon?
As for compute mostly falling back to growth according to its price-performance, the AI-2027 compute forecast doesn’t mention anything better than 3nm chips, and TSMC’s 2nm chips would be significantly more expensive than those of previous generations.
The METR benchmark itself has yet to include tasks requiring more than 16 hrs of work.