If this is really true, and I think it is, shock levels are an example of human insanity.
Or ignorance. If Alice knows more than Bob, and Bob doesn’t know about Alice, there’s nothing insane about Alice being able to predict how Bob’s beliefs will change as he learns what she knows.
(That said, insanity is certainly involved as well — point estimation, and fighting a rearguard retreat against the evidence, at least.)
Or ignorance. If Alice knows more than Bob, and Bob doesn’t know about Alice, there’s nothing insane about Alice being able to predict how Bob’s beliefs will change as he learns what she knows.
(That said, insanity is certainly involved as well — point estimation, and fighting a rearguard retreat against the evidence, at least.)