If you ask me to estimate some quantity, and track how my estimates change over time, you should expect it to look like a random walk if I’m being rational.
Shock Levels are partly about what kind of technology is possible, though, and since we never find that something we’ve been doing is impossible, there’s a built-in ratchet. Your random walk would only be possible for a time if your initial estimates were extremely high.
Shock Levels are partly about what kind of technology is possible, though, and since we never find that something we’ve been doing is impossible, there’s a built-in ratchet. Your random walk would only be possible for a time if your initial estimates were extremely high.