Challenge accepted, thanks—and I think easily surmounted:
Your Fakeness argument—I’ll call it “Sheer Size Argument” makes about as much sense as for a house cat seeing only the few m^3 around it, to claim the world cannot be the size of Earth—not to speak of the galaxy.
Who knows!
Or to make the hopefully obvious point more explicitly: Given we are so utterly clueless as to why ANY THING is at all instead of NOTHING, how would you have any claim to ex ante know about how large the THING that is has to be? It feels natural to claim what you claim, but it doesn’t stand the test at all. Realize, you don’t have any informed prior about potential actual size of universe beyond what you observe, unless your observation directly suggested a sort of ‘closure’ that would make simplifying sense of observations in a sort of Occam Razor way. But the latter doesn’t seem to exist; at least people suggesting Many Worlds suggest it’s rather simpler to make sense of observations if you presume Many Worlds—judging from ongoing discussions that later claim in turn seems to be up for debate, but what’s clear: The Sheer Size Argument is rather mute in actual thinking about what the structure of the universe may or may not be.
I don’t think this can be exactly right. I have googled some largest numbers in the universe (space and time) and they were < 10^100. Then I turned to computing 1/the magnitude of the amplitude of our branch. At that point I have some probability distribution of what that number is, and it can be surprising (aka seem fake) if it’s exponentially more than the previous numbers.
It seems quite clear to me that is a valid form of reasoning that has ever worked correctly. It may turn out to be wrong in this case, but my vibe tell is that something is up with the amplitude.
Some form of this reasoning could work for the cat in your example, e.g. comparing the width of a hair to the size of the house he’d get the order of the order of magnitude of earth (math not checked).
This might work better or worse depending on the version of Occam’s razor, which I have uncertainty over.
Challenge accepted, thanks—and I think easily surmounted:
Your Fakeness argument—I’ll call it “Sheer Size Argument” makes about as much sense as for a house cat seeing only the few m^3 around it, to claim the world cannot be the size of Earth—not to speak of the galaxy.
Who knows!
Or to make the hopefully obvious point more explicitly: Given we are so utterly clueless as to why ANY THING is at all instead of NOTHING, how would you have any claim to ex ante know about how large the THING that is has to be? It feels natural to claim what you claim, but it doesn’t stand the test at all. Realize, you don’t have any informed prior about potential actual size of universe beyond what you observe, unless your observation directly suggested a sort of ‘closure’ that would make simplifying sense of observations in a sort of Occam Razor way. But the latter doesn’t seem to exist; at least people suggesting Many Worlds suggest it’s rather simpler to make sense of observations if you presume Many Worlds—judging from ongoing discussions that later claim in turn seems to be up for debate, but what’s clear: The Sheer Size Argument is rather mute in actual thinking about what the structure of the universe may or may not be.
I don’t think this can be exactly right. I have googled some largest numbers in the universe (space and time) and they were < 10^100. Then I turned to computing 1/the magnitude of the amplitude of our branch. At that point I have some probability distribution of what that number is, and it can be surprising (aka seem fake) if it’s exponentially more than the previous numbers.
It seems quite clear to me that is a valid form of reasoning that has ever worked correctly. It may turn out to be wrong in this case, but my vibe tell is that something is up with the amplitude.
Some form of this reasoning could work for the cat in your example, e.g. comparing the width of a hair to the size of the house he’d get the order of the order of magnitude of earth (math not checked).
This might work better or worse depending on the version of Occam’s razor, which I have uncertainty over.