I am invoking the near misses in the cold war. But now you have changed your tack from “Civilisation however, did not end” (i.e. the effect of a nuclear war is not an existential disaster) to “Estimates of its probability seem necessarily speculative to me”, which doesn’t really matter. What the probability is is what matters, which you didn’t comment about.
I did—I said your estimate of a “near miss” was “speculative”. In fact, the world didn’t end, and you haven’t presented evidence that that was actually a likely outcome. Calling the “cold war” a “near miss” doesn’t count for very much. We had zero use of nuclear weapons in anger during that era.
I am invoking the near misses in the cold war. But now you have changed your tack from “Civilisation however, did not end” (i.e. the effect of a nuclear war is not an existential disaster) to “Estimates of its probability seem necessarily speculative to me”, which doesn’t really matter. What the probability is is what matters, which you didn’t comment about.
I did—I said your estimate of a “near miss” was “speculative”. In fact, the world didn’t end, and you haven’t presented evidence that that was actually a likely outcome. Calling the “cold war” a “near miss” doesn’t count for very much. We had zero use of nuclear weapons in anger during that era.