Solar and Lunar Mana, which I think has about 66% chance of working. The only mana type that can be predicted 10 days in advance (beyond the prediction of a random sample from the previous data) is Doom. And that still doesn’t work out with as high probability. (Doom mana will be on a high at the time, but using it with solar gives a 69% chance of reaching 70 and an 11% chance of demons. So a 58% chance of doing good.) If the utility is 0 for any amount of mana <70, and the amount of mana if its >=70, then solar + earth does slightly better in expected utility. 54.6 vs the 54.2 for solar+lunar. It has slightly lower success probability 63%, but slightly more mana if it does succeed.
I would use
Solar and Lunar Mana, which I think has about 66% chance of working. The only mana type that can be predicted 10 days in advance (beyond the prediction of a random sample from the previous data) is Doom. And that still doesn’t work out with as high probability. (Doom mana will be on a high at the time, but using it with solar gives a 69% chance of reaching 70 and an 11% chance of demons. So a 58% chance of doing good.) If the utility is 0 for any amount of mana <70, and the amount of mana if its >=70, then solar + earth does slightly better in expected utility. 54.6 vs the 54.2 for solar+lunar. It has slightly lower success probability 63%, but slightly more mana if it does succeed.