It would be really weird if they charged you 10% on your net winnings, and didn’t tie up the capital to pay that fee, but that is what the written rules imply. If that was true and the issue never corrected, you would pay back most of the cash. 112% would still technically be a win (and you get a full win if the field comes in, of course) but it’s quite the tiny profit.
The 5% is another issue if you plan to move things in and out frequently; I’ve been rolling wins. Rossry’s right that you don’t put money in to then sell 95s, win and withdraw it, but you can do lots of 95s in succession (and probably should from a pure maximizing perspective).
And I certainly haven’t been doing full arbitrage, in general, so there’s that.
All fits the basic hypothesis of ‘things need to be extremely wrong before they are worth fixing.’ I will edit to make sure people realize the fee issue properly.
One weird implication is that if *enough* people do this and force the market back into line with 100% combined probability, you could then close out of your positions with no losses and only wins, and still make a profit. Quirky.
It would be really weird if they charged you 10% on your net winnings, and didn’t tie up the capital to pay that fee, but that is what the written rules imply. If that was true and the issue never corrected, you would pay back most of the cash. 112% would still technically be a win (and you get a full win if the field comes in, of course) but it’s quite the tiny profit.
The 5% is another issue if you plan to move things in and out frequently; I’ve been rolling wins. Rossry’s right that you don’t put money in to then sell 95s, win and withdraw it, but you can do lots of 95s in succession (and probably should from a pure maximizing perspective).
And I certainly haven’t been doing full arbitrage, in general, so there’s that.
All fits the basic hypothesis of ‘things need to be extremely wrong before they are worth fixing.’ I will edit to make sure people realize the fee issue properly.
One weird implication is that if *enough* people do this and force the market back into line with 100% combined probability, you could then close out of your positions with no losses and only wins, and still make a profit. Quirky.
I still found this helpful as it allowed me to exit my directional Yang and Buttigieg positions with negative transaction cost.
Huh, I hadn’t noticed that they didn’t tie up the potential fees on your winnings. Hypotheses:
bug introduced when they moved from gross margining to net margining years and didn’t reconsider fees withholding
doesn’t actually matter; they don’t give up ~anything by letting some people carrying small balances make free trades
it’s really hard to abuse this into free trades repeatedly
the withholding here is too complicated and feel-bad to explain
other