If the alternative uncertainty-resolution method is a negotiated settlement, the act of starting negotiations potentially changes the balance of force by the end of the negotiation, since opposing power will learn that you are considering a war and have time to prepare itself. Many modern military conflicts have started with a surprise attack intended to knock out or demoralize the enemy before they could build up their full strength. Once the attack begins, the fact that the defender resists might indicate that you were overconfident, but it could also be a bluff or a result of their own overconfidence—in any case there is no time to negotiate and find out. But this doesn’t explain why wars continue for years if the initial attack fails.
If the alternative uncertainty-resolution method is a negotiated settlement, the act of starting negotiations potentially changes the balance of force by the end of the negotiation, since opposing power will learn that you are considering a war and have time to prepare itself. Many modern military conflicts have started with a surprise attack intended to knock out or demoralize the enemy before they could build up their full strength. Once the attack begins, the fact that the defender resists might indicate that you were overconfident, but it could also be a bluff or a result of their own overconfidence—in any case there is no time to negotiate and find out. But this doesn’t explain why wars continue for years if the initial attack fails.