(I’ve already voted on several of these! I doctored the screenshot to hide my votes)
I think LessWrong’s annual review is better than karma at finding the best and most enduring posts. Part of the dream for the review prediction markets is bringing some of that high-quality signal from the future into the present. That signal is currently highlighted with gold karma on the post item, if the prediction market has a high enough probability.
Currently the markets are pretty thinly traded, but I think they already have decent signal. They could do a lot better, I think, with a little more smart trading. It would be a nice bonus if this UI attracted a bit more betting.
Hopefully coming soon: a tag on the markets which indicates which year review they’ll be in, to make it a bit easier for consistency traders to make their bag.
The predicted winners for future years of the review are now visible on the Best of LessWrong page! Here are the top ten guesses for the currently ongoing 2024 review:
(I’ve already voted on several of these! I doctored the screenshot to hide my votes)
I think LessWrong’s annual review is better than karma at finding the best and most enduring posts. Part of the dream for the review prediction markets is bringing some of that high-quality signal from the future into the present. That signal is currently highlighted with gold karma on the post item, if the prediction market has a high enough probability.
Currently the markets are pretty thinly traded, but I think they already have decent signal. They could do a lot better, I think, with a little more smart trading. It would be a nice bonus if this UI attracted a bit more betting.
Hopefully coming soon: a tag on the markets which indicates which year review they’ll be in, to make it a bit easier for consistency traders to make their bag.