If everyone acts rationally, the result will be Ukraine growing closer to the EU, Russia becoming more isolated, and no WW3. But Russia isn’t acting rationally, I’m losing count of distinct stupid things it has done since Feb 21. Extrapolating that stupidity into the future makes me think that WW3 is quite possible.
If everyone acts rationally, the result will be Ukraine growing closer to the EU
I am curious why you think that.
To avoid provoking the Soviet Union, Finland and Austria refrain from joining the EU till 5 years after East Germany joined the EU and they still are not (and never were) members of NATO. Nothing bad happened to Finland and Austria that is a quarter as bad as what is happening to Ukraine now.
Ukrainians have wanted to join the EU for years, it was one of the main points of the Euromaidan. Most in the EU were lukewarm to it, but now because of the war there are huge pro-Ukraine demonstrations in every European capital.
I don’t know about Austria, but I was reading recently an article about Finland’s neutrality, by a Finish author, which explained that “neutral” had for a long time meant “nothing should appear in the media that might anger the USSR”. Which is not exactly “nothing bad”.
If everyone acts rationally, the result will be Ukraine growing closer to the EU, Russia becoming more isolated, and no WW3. But Russia isn’t acting rationally, I’m losing count of distinct stupid things it has done since Feb 21. Extrapolating that stupidity into the future makes me think that WW3 is quite possible.
I am curious why you think that.
To avoid provoking the Soviet Union, Finland and Austria refrain from joining the EU till 5 years after East Germany joined the EU and they still are not (and never were) members of NATO. Nothing bad happened to Finland and Austria that is a quarter as bad as what is happening to Ukraine now.
Ukrainians have wanted to join the EU for years, it was one of the main points of the Euromaidan. Most in the EU were lukewarm to it, but now because of the war there are huge pro-Ukraine demonstrations in every European capital.
I don’t know about Austria, but I was reading recently an article about Finland’s neutrality, by a Finish author, which explained that “neutral” had for a long time meant “nothing should appear in the media that might anger the USSR”. Which is not exactly “nothing bad”.