If you also felt “all this shit is dumb, just do the obvious thing” when you developed FNIC then I empathize with your feelings, while respectfully disagreeing with you on the objective level, regarding the question whether you are just applying basic probability theory or not.
Except, you know, that’s exactly what I do with Full Non-indexical Conditioning, but you don’t like the answer.
Philosophy is full of issues where lots of people think they’re just doing the “obvious thing”, except these people come to different conclusions.
If you also felt “all this shit is dumb, just do the obvious thing” when you developed FNIC then I empathize with your feelings, while respectfully disagreeing with you on the objective level, regarding the question whether you are just applying basic probability theory or not.