I have a paper (planning to get it on arxiv any day now…) which contains a result: independence of causal mechanisms (which can be related to Occam’s razor & your first point here) + precedent (“things I can do have been done before”) + variety (related to your second point—we’ve observed the phenomena in a meaningfully varied range of circumstances) + conditional independence (which OP used to construct the Bayes net) implies a conditional distribution invariant under action.
That is, speaking very loosely, if you add your considerations to OPs recipe for Bayes nets and the assumption of precedent, you can derive something kinda like interventions.
I have a paper (planning to get it on arxiv any day now…) which contains a result: independence of causal mechanisms (which can be related to Occam’s razor & your first point here) + precedent (“things I can do have been done before”) + variety (related to your second point—we’ve observed the phenomena in a meaningfully varied range of circumstances) + conditional independence (which OP used to construct the Bayes net) implies a conditional distribution invariant under action.
That is, speaking very loosely, if you add your considerations to OPs recipe for Bayes nets and the assumption of precedent, you can derive something kinda like interventions.