Fair enough. There is some reasoning on my end at the bottom of the post:
Dec 2024: 2032. Updated on early versions of the timelines model predicting shorter timelines than I expected. Also, RE-Bench scores were higher than I would have guessed. Apr 2025:2031. Updated based on the two variants of the AI 2027 timelines model giving 2027 and 2028 superhuman coder (SC) medians. My SC median was 2030, higher than the within-model median because I placed some weight on the model being confused, a poor framework, missing factors, etc. I also gave some weight to other heuristics and alternative models, which seemed overall point in the direction of longer timelines. I shifted my median back by a year from SC to get one for TED-AI/AGI. Jul 2025: 2033. Updated based on corrections to our timelines model and downlift. Nov 2025: 2035. Updated based on the AI Futures Model’s intermediate results. (source) Jan 2026: Jan 2035 (~2035.0). For Automated Coder (AC), my all-things-considered median is about 1.5 years later than the model’s output. For TED-AI, my all-things-considered median is instead 1.5 earlier than the model’s output, because I believe the model’s takeoff is too slow, due to modeling neither hardware R&D automation nor broad economic automation. See my forecast here. My justification for pushing back the AC date is in the first “Eli’s notes on their all-things-considered forecast” expandable, and the justification for adjusting takeoff to be faster is in the second.
And Daniel and I both wrote up relevant reasoning in our model announcement post. (edit: and Daniel also wrote some at the bottom of this blog post).
Fair enough. There is some reasoning on my end at the bottom of the post:
And Daniel and I both wrote up relevant reasoning in our model announcement post. (edit: and Daniel also wrote some at the bottom of this blog post).