I didn’t believe an invasion was about to happen up until it had. At most I thought Putin would place Russian troops in the breakaway regions. I would have given less than 5% odds to a direct attack on Kyiv. Even with the benefit of hindsight I still cannot make sense of what transpired. Even if Putin managed to conquer most major cities, Ukraine would have become a major pain for him. I assume this is ideology trumping reason.
Ukraine would have produced pain for Russia but for Putin himself that would have resulted in a strong increase in his approval within the Russian population and the Russian power centers.
I didn’t believe an invasion was about to happen up until it had. At most I thought Putin would place Russian troops in the breakaway regions. I would have given less than 5% odds to a direct attack on Kyiv. Even with the benefit of hindsight I still cannot make sense of what transpired. Even if Putin managed to conquer most major cities, Ukraine would have become a major pain for him. I assume this is ideology trumping reason.
Ukraine would have produced pain for Russia but for Putin himself that would have resulted in a strong increase in his approval within the Russian population and the Russian power centers.