Gary Marcus offered Elon Musk 10:1 odds on the bet, offering to go up to $1 million dollars using Elon Musk’s definition of ‘capable of doing anything a human with a computer can do, but not smarter than all humans combined’, but I’m sure Elon Musk could hold out for 20:1 and he’d get it. By that definition, the chance Grok 5 will count seems very close to epsilon. No, just no.
Nitpick: we don’t know what Musk’s researchers actually did. If they found the actually capable neuralese architecture, then we are done. But what is the probability that they found the right architecture and there were no whistleblowers at least in the form of Meta researchers describing their experiments with neuralese back in December?
Nitpick: we don’t know what Musk’s researchers actually did. If they found the actually capable neuralese architecture, then we are done. But what is the probability that they found the right architecture and there were no whistleblowers at least in the form of Meta researchers describing their experiments with neuralese back in December?