But I can imagine an AI that is the 99.9th percentile across some disciplines but not all. I’d assume we already spend ~10T for things like engineering talent, medical advice, legal etc.. and that seems like AI companies could make that much (given they can capture a lot of the excess value—assume there’s only a single AI lab and there’s no competition if you will). I can imagine something slightly better than today’s AI’s have that level of revenue after proliferating through the economy for another decade.
Even if it’s deficient in a bunch of other things we are good at (writing, comedy, physical labor, making better AI’s etc..) It seems to me you can get very far without all human skills, but just a subset of them.
I agree actually, that maybe AIs not too different from today’s could get to $10T after proliferating into the economy for another decade.
So perhaps Thomas’ argument should be revised to more specifically be about the next two years or so. If Anthropic or OAI make it to $10T by 2029, then that seems like something that couldn’t be achieved with just slightly better versions of current AIs. There just isn’t enough time to build all the products on top of it, transform all the industries, outcompete the dinosaurs, etc. Whereas if they actually do have a drop-in replacement for human professionals at everything, then yes they’d make it to $10T.
AGI → loads of revenue path makes sense to me
But I can imagine an AI that is the 99.9th percentile across some disciplines but not all. I’d assume we already spend ~10T for things like engineering talent, medical advice, legal etc.. and that seems like AI companies could make that much (given they can capture a lot of the excess value—assume there’s only a single AI lab and there’s no competition if you will). I can imagine something slightly better than today’s AI’s have that level of revenue after proliferating through the economy for another decade.
Even if it’s deficient in a bunch of other things we are good at (writing, comedy, physical labor, making better AI’s etc..) It seems to me you can get very far without all human skills, but just a subset of them.
I agree actually, that maybe AIs not too different from today’s could get to $10T after proliferating into the economy for another decade.
So perhaps Thomas’ argument should be revised to more specifically be about the next two years or so. If Anthropic or OAI make it to $10T by 2029, then that seems like something that couldn’t be achieved with just slightly better versions of current AIs. There just isn’t enough time to build all the products on top of it, transform all the industries, outcompete the dinosaurs, etc. Whereas if they actually do have a drop-in replacement for human professionals at everything, then yes they’d make it to $10T.