T.C. Chamberlin’s “Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses”, as discussed by Abram here, is pretty much a summary of LW epistemic rationality. The idea is that you should look at your data, your hypothesis, and the next best hypothesis that fits the data. Some applications:
Wason 2-4-6 task: if you receive information that 1-2-3 is okay and 2-4-6 is okay while 3-2-1 isn’t, and your hypothesis is that increasing arithmetic progressions are okay, the next best hypothesis for the same data is that all increasing sequences are okay. That suggests the next experiment to try.
Hermione and Harry with the soda: if the soda vanishes when spilled on the robes, and your hypothesis is that the robes are magical, the next best hypothesis is that the soda is magical. That suggests the next experiment to try.
Einstein’s arrogance: if you have a hypothesis and you’ve tried many next best hypotheses on the same data, you can be arrogant before seeing new data.
Witch trials: if the witch is scared of your questioning, and your hypothesis is that she’s scared because she’s guilty, the next best hypothesis is that she’s scared of being killed. If your data doesn’t favor one over the other, you have no business thinking about such things.
Mysterious answers: if you don’t know anything about science, and your hypothesis is that sugar is sweet because its molecule is triangular, the next best hypothesis is that the molecule is square shaped. If your data doesn’t favor one over the other, you have no business thinking about such things.
Religion: if you don’t see any miracles, and your hypothesis is that God is hiding, the next best hypothesis is that God doesn’t exist.
And so on. It’s interesting how many ideas this covers.
Thanks for listing some of the applications! Maybe one of us will get around to a proper post just on this.
The closest thing I have to an outline on a post about this is here, but other parts of my rationality notes tagged with that “recurring theme: come up with alternatives” phrase are likely relevant.
T.C. Chamberlin’s “Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses”, as discussed by Abram here, is pretty much a summary of LW epistemic rationality. The idea is that you should look at your data, your hypothesis, and the next best hypothesis that fits the data. Some applications:
Wason 2-4-6 task: if you receive information that 1-2-3 is okay and 2-4-6 is okay while 3-2-1 isn’t, and your hypothesis is that increasing arithmetic progressions are okay, the next best hypothesis for the same data is that all increasing sequences are okay. That suggests the next experiment to try.
Hermione and Harry with the soda: if the soda vanishes when spilled on the robes, and your hypothesis is that the robes are magical, the next best hypothesis is that the soda is magical. That suggests the next experiment to try.
Einstein’s arrogance: if you have a hypothesis and you’ve tried many next best hypotheses on the same data, you can be arrogant before seeing new data.
Witch trials: if the witch is scared of your questioning, and your hypothesis is that she’s scared because she’s guilty, the next best hypothesis is that she’s scared of being killed. If your data doesn’t favor one over the other, you have no business thinking about such things.
Mysterious answers: if you don’t know anything about science, and your hypothesis is that sugar is sweet because its molecule is triangular, the next best hypothesis is that the molecule is square shaped. If your data doesn’t favor one over the other, you have no business thinking about such things.
Religion: if you don’t see any miracles, and your hypothesis is that God is hiding, the next best hypothesis is that God doesn’t exist.
And so on. It’s interesting how many ideas this covers.
Thanks for listing some of the applications! Maybe one of us will get around to a proper post just on this.
The closest thing I have to an outline on a post about this is here, but other parts of my rationality notes tagged with that “recurring theme: come up with alternatives” phrase are likely relevant.