This isn’t a retrospective assessment, it’s the worst-case projection out of 4 scenario forecasts done in May 2020, ranging from $3.3 to $82 trillion over 5 years, using an undefined reasoning-nontransparent metric called “GDP@Risk” I couldn’t find anything on after a quick search.
To be honest I was ready to believe it (especially since your writings are usually analytically thorough), and was just curious about the derivation! Thanks for the post.
I’ll have to go and fix that on Wikipedia as well, that’s what misled me in the first place. Thanks again for checking this! The best paper I’m finding is this one with six scenarios, them putting the cost between -$17 trio. and -$35 trio., so I wasn’t off by a factor of ten but instead a factor of two to five.
This isn’t a retrospective assessment, it’s the worst-case projection out of 4 scenario forecasts done in May 2020, ranging from $3.3 to $82 trillion over 5 years, using an undefined reasoning-nontransparent metric called “GDP@Risk” I couldn’t find anything on after a quick search.
Aw man I shouldn’t have trusted that number! It seemed a bit sketchy. I’ll edit it into something sane.
Edit: Fixed.
To be honest I was ready to believe it (especially since your writings are usually analytically thorough), and was just curious about the derivation! Thanks for the post.
I’ll have to go and fix that on Wikipedia as well, that’s what misled me in the first place. Thanks again for checking this! The best paper I’m finding is this one with six scenarios, them putting the cost between -$17 trio. and -$35 trio., so I wasn’t off by a factor of ten but instead a factor of two to five.