Played around with it a bit this past week. Main problem is I can’t find much to bet on. The markets that will close in 2030 etc are profoundly uninteresting and the short term stuff is mostly in the genre of various horse races (sports, politics, celebrities, crypto prices).
I guess I agree with Tetlock that the main hurdle for these is the lack of interesting questions. One obvious hypothesis is that short term alpha is almost always kept quiet, so it wouldn’t be trickling into a public market.
Played around with it a bit this past week. Main problem is I can’t find much to bet on. The markets that will close in 2030 etc are profoundly uninteresting and the short term stuff is mostly in the genre of various horse races (sports, politics, celebrities, crypto prices).
I guess I agree with Tetlock that the main hurdle for these is the lack of interesting questions. One obvious hypothesis is that short term alpha is almost always kept quiet, so it wouldn’t be trickling into a public market.