Do you recall what the probability of a fellow soldier dying due to calling in air strike was? In my tests so far it was never greater than 20%, so you should definitely call in an air strike in your scenario since the false positive outcome is not as costly as the false negative.
Edit: It looks like it sometimes goes up to 30%, but the conclusion still holds.
Edit2: If you have a sufficiently “selfish” utility function, it would be short-term rational to always click the airstrike button. The scenario doesn’t outline any larger picture in terms of consequences for you personally.
Ah, apparently I rolled maximum hard mode that time, as it was indeed 30% chance of fellow soldier death
I reasoned similarly that the cost of a FP was less than for a FN and called in the air strike; it told me some other guy died. I reloaded the same scenario and tried a direct attack; I got shot by a sniper.
Do you recall what the probability of a fellow soldier dying due to calling in air strike was? In my tests so far it was never greater than 20%, so you should definitely call in an air strike in your scenario since the false positive outcome is not as costly as the false negative.
Edit: It looks like it sometimes goes up to 30%, but the conclusion still holds.
Edit2: If you have a sufficiently “selfish” utility function, it would be short-term rational to always click the airstrike button. The scenario doesn’t outline any larger picture in terms of consequences for you personally.
Ah, apparently I rolled maximum hard mode that time, as it was indeed 30% chance of fellow soldier death
I reasoned similarly that the cost of a FP was less than for a FN and called in the air strike; it told me some other guy died. I reloaded the same scenario and tried a direct attack; I got shot by a sniper.