I guess that influencing P(future goes extremely well | no AI takeover) maybe pretty hard, and plagued by cluelessness problems. Avoiding AI takeover is a goal that I have at least some confidence is good.
That said, I do wish more people were thinking about to make the future go well. I think my favorite thing to aim for is increasing the probability that we do a Long Reflection, although I haven’t really thought at all about how to do that.
I guess that influencing P(future goes extremely well | no AI takeover) maybe pretty hard, and plagued by cluelessness problems. Avoiding AI takeover is a goal that I have at least some confidence is good.
That said, I do wish more people were thinking about to make the future go well. I think my favorite thing to aim for is increasing the probability that we do a Long Reflection, although I haven’t really thought at all about how to do that.