The invasion of Ukraine might cause a famine because of restrictions on food and energy exports from Russia and Ukraine, reduced planting in Ukraine, and reduced fertilizer production. Below are some steps that could be taken to mitigate the famine:
Eliminate government biofuel mandates.
Have agricultural exporting countries promise they will not restrict the price of food. Expectations that governments will reduce the future price of food will reduce food production today.
If politicians need to keep down some food prices, lower the long-term price of meat. Lowering this price will cause farmers to slaughter and so no longer feed animals.
Eliminate regulatory barriers to farmers planting more, using different crops, or using different fertilizer.
Eliminate regulatory barriers to using existing power plants that are not currently run at full capacity to produce fertilizer. Accept that this will to some extent harm climate change goals.
Make use of prediction markets to investigate how bad the famine could get.
Philanthropic organizations should investigate the possibility of famine. Offer fast grants to qualified individuals to investigate. The key (I think) is to determine the price elasticity of supply of food given the fertilizer production limitations we face.
Corn produces significantly more calories per acre than wheat does, and I believe on many types of land farmers have the ability to plant either corn or wheat. If famine is a huge concern, farmers should be incentivized to grow corn over wheat. This could in part be accomplished by philanthropic organizations promising to buy corn in the future, thus raising the expected future price of corn.
Anything else that can be done? I’m not sure if it’s optimal to try to make reducing famine a significant goal for the United States since the government might respond by using price controls that make the famine worse.
The invasion of Ukraine might cause a famine because of restrictions on food and energy exports from Russia and Ukraine, reduced planting in Ukraine, and reduced fertilizer production. Below are some steps that could be taken to mitigate the famine:
Eliminate government biofuel mandates.
Have agricultural exporting countries promise they will not restrict the price of food. Expectations that governments will reduce the future price of food will reduce food production today.
If politicians need to keep down some food prices, lower the long-term price of meat. Lowering this price will cause farmers to slaughter and so no longer feed animals.
Eliminate regulatory barriers to farmers planting more, using different crops, or using different fertilizer.
Eliminate regulatory barriers to using existing power plants that are not currently run at full capacity to produce fertilizer. Accept that this will to some extent harm climate change goals.
Make use of prediction markets to investigate how bad the famine could get.
Philanthropic organizations should investigate the possibility of famine. Offer fast grants to qualified individuals to investigate. The key (I think) is to determine the price elasticity of supply of food given the fertilizer production limitations we face.
Corn produces significantly more calories per acre than wheat does, and I believe on many types of land farmers have the ability to plant either corn or wheat. If famine is a huge concern, farmers should be incentivized to grow corn over wheat. This could in part be accomplished by philanthropic organizations promising to buy corn in the future, thus raising the expected future price of corn.
Anything else that can be done? I’m not sure if it’s optimal to try to make reducing famine a significant goal for the United States since the government might respond by using price controls that make the famine worse.
Why isn’t removal of the sanctions on the list?
Yes, good point.