I’m fairly confident in some of my predictions for future experience. Never 100%, of course.
But that’s not my point. My point is that searching for truth is only very lightly correlated with convincing idiots that they’re wrong. Good conversations among epistemically-sane (or even intelligent but brainwashed) people are very good for discovering better models and refining your beliefs. Trying to convert the median or worse is not helpful (for knowledge/understanding; it may be helpful for actual power or outcomes).
I’m fairly confident in some of my predictions for future experience. Never 100%, of course.
But that’s not my point. My point is that searching for truth is only very lightly correlated with convincing idiots that they’re wrong. Good conversations among epistemically-sane (or even intelligent but brainwashed) people are very good for discovering better models and refining your beliefs. Trying to convert the median or worse is not helpful (for knowledge/understanding; it may be helpful for actual power or outcomes).
Interesting model. Probably you are right and I didn’t considered this because all my friends and me are not idiots.