In my estimates, also only counting personal benefit, but taking into account secondary long-term effects as well as the increased risk from overwhelmed hospitals, I got something closer to days_lost_per_infection=250, which is what I am currently planning with. Here is an abridged summary of that Fermi:
Risk of dying in non-overwhelmed hospitals: 0.2%
Risk of dying in overwhelmed hospitals: 1.5%
Probability of being treated in overwhelmed hospital: ~50%
=> Average risk of dying from getting it: ~0.8%
Remaining Life-Expectancy: ~50 years
=> Expected life-months lost from death: ~5 months
Likelihood of secondary long-term effects when getting it: 5-15%
Average badness of secondary long-term effects: ~18 months
=> Expected life-months lost from secondary-effects: ~2 months
I think the effects on spreading the disease, infecting others, and increasing peak disease burden have a lot more variance, and I have a lot more uncertainty in them, but I think it seems reasonable to take the number above and multiply it by something between 1.1 and 3 to get the total cost.
Likelihood of secondary long-term effects when getting it
I estimated this primarily on the basis of hospitalization rates and cases that are classified as “severe” which are around 10%-20% from what I’ve seen so far.
Average badness of secondary long-term effects
I mostly just read a bunch of papers on Pneumonia and looked up some related reading on secondary effects from other diseases. Here is an answer that goes into detail on this:
In my estimates, also only counting personal benefit, but taking into account secondary long-term effects as well as the increased risk from overwhelmed hospitals, I got something closer to days_lost_per_infection=250, which is what I am currently planning with. Here is an abridged summary of that Fermi:
Risk of dying in non-overwhelmed hospitals: 0.2%
Risk of dying in overwhelmed hospitals: 1.5%
Probability of being treated in overwhelmed hospital: ~50%
=> Average risk of dying from getting it: ~0.8%
Remaining Life-Expectancy: ~50 years
=> Expected life-months lost from death: ~5 months
Likelihood of secondary long-term effects when getting it: 5-15%
Average badness of secondary long-term effects: ~18 months
=> Expected life-months lost from secondary-effects: ~2 months
Primary negative effects from illness: ~1 month
Total negative effect: ~8 months = ~250 days
I think the effects on spreading the disease, infecting others, and increasing peak disease burden have a lot more variance, and I have a lot more uncertainty in them, but I think it seems reasonable to take the number above and multiply it by something between 1.1 and 3 to get the total cost.
How did you estimate “Likelihood of secondary long-term effects when getting it” and “Average badness of secondary long-term effects”?
Likelihood of secondary long-term effects when getting it
I estimated this primarily on the basis of hospitalization rates and cases that are classified as “severe” which are around 10%-20% from what I’ve seen so far.
Average badness of secondary long-term effects
I mostly just read a bunch of papers on Pneumonia and looked up some related reading on secondary effects from other diseases. Here is an answer that goes into detail on this:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h4GFHbhxE2pfiadhi/will-ncov-survivors-suffer-lasting-disability-at-a-high-rate?commentId=uZJqxj3SDBth7Md3S
Should read “~8 months = ~250 days”
Oops, thanks, fixed!