My calculated doubling time of 2-3 days is only really trustworthy for the first 2 or 3 doublings in a given country after the virus breaks containment.
I anticipate it increasing after that (and we see that in multiple countries) as government measures and personal behavioural changes kick in. If it follows a Sigmoid curve, as China appeared to after quarantine, then the length of time required to allow the virus to work its way through the population will go up dramatically.
My calculated doubling time of 2-3 days is only really trustworthy for the first 2 or 3 doublings in a given country after the virus breaks containment.
I anticipate it increasing after that (and we see that in multiple countries) as government measures and personal behavioural changes kick in. If it follows a Sigmoid curve, as China appeared to after quarantine, then the length of time required to allow the virus to work its way through the population will go up dramatically.
(Edited to remove some errors)