Very dangerous assumption here that death is the only adverse outcome. Survivors of some other Corona virus infections have had lasting debilitating effects. We just have no data on this for the current pandemic.
As OP mentioned this was a purely “from my self-interest perspective”. Even extending this to the risk of infecting family members would change the equation markedly I think.
In my personal Fermi Estimates, I multiplied the cost from death by about 2.5 to account for secondary long-term effects, mostly because the number of young people being hospitalized and needing major medical attention is in the 10% range (i.e. 50x higher than the default death rate), and a significant fraction of those are hooked up to mechanical ventilators, and my medical intuition says that if you are hooked up to a mechanical ventilator enough stuff has gone wrong that you will probably walk away with some long-term effects.
Very dangerous assumption here that death is the only adverse outcome. Survivors of some other Corona virus infections have had lasting debilitating effects. We just have no data on this for the current pandemic.
As OP mentioned this was a purely “from my self-interest perspective”. Even extending this to the risk of infecting family members would change the equation markedly I think.
How dangerous is that assumption? What multiple of the impact from death is the impact from disability? How different a decision would that imply?
In my personal Fermi Estimates, I multiplied the cost from death by about 2.5 to account for secondary long-term effects, mostly because the number of young people being hospitalized and needing major medical attention is in the 10% range (i.e. 50x higher than the default death rate), and a significant fraction of those are hooked up to mechanical ventilators, and my medical intuition says that if you are hooked up to a mechanical ventilator enough stuff has gone wrong that you will probably walk away with some long-term effects.