The long run is strictly the sum of the sequence of short runs that it comprises. The way to influence long timelines is to have influence over pivotal sections of the shorter timelines.
That’s true, but I’m not sure it’s always useful to frame things that way. “To have influence over pivotal sections of the shorter timelines” you need to know which sections those are, know what type of influence is useful, and be in a position to exert influence when they arrive. If you don’t have that knowledge and can’t guarantee you’ll have that power, and don’t know how to change those things, then what you need right now is a short term plan to fix those shortcomings. However, if you are in a position to influence the short-term but not long term future, you can pursue a general strategy of making sure more people with the requisite knowledge will exist and have sufficient influence when pivotal moments arise. Depending on circumstances, skills, talent, and so on, this might have higher expected payoff than trying to optimize for personally being that influential individual in the future.
The long run is strictly the sum of the sequence of short runs that it comprises. The way to influence long timelines is to have influence over pivotal sections of the shorter timelines.
That’s true, but I’m not sure it’s always useful to frame things that way. “To have influence over pivotal sections of the shorter timelines” you need to know which sections those are, know what type of influence is useful, and be in a position to exert influence when they arrive. If you don’t have that knowledge and can’t guarantee you’ll have that power, and don’t know how to change those things, then what you need right now is a short term plan to fix those shortcomings. However, if you are in a position to influence the short-term but not long term future, you can pursue a general strategy of making sure more people with the requisite knowledge will exist and have sufficient influence when pivotal moments arise. Depending on circumstances, skills, talent, and so on, this might have higher expected payoff than trying to optimize for personally being that influential individual in the future.
IOW I think this question is closely tied to the ideas in another recent post, When Money Is Abundant, Knowledge Is The Real Wealth.