There are various things that could happen that cause extinction or catastrophe prior to TAI, various things that massively reduce our ability to steer the world like a breakdown of collective epistemology or a new world war, etc. Things that push us past the point of no return. And probably a bunch of them are unknowns.
This effectively works as a discount rate, and is a reason to favor short timelines.
There are various things that could happen that cause extinction or catastrophe prior to TAI, various things that massively reduce our ability to steer the world like a breakdown of collective epistemology or a new world war, etc. Things that push us past the point of no return. And probably a bunch of them are unknowns.
This effectively works as a discount rate, and is a reason to favor short timelines.